LOCK: Atlanta (-7) over CAROLINA — This spread honestly baffles me. Maybe it’s just the fact that it’s early in the week and the odds-makers feel generous. Maybe there’s a feeling like the Falcons won’t go all-out in essentially a meaningless game. Either way, the spread is just wrong. The Falcons are 10-2, and Carolina is … an embarrassment. The Falcons are coming off a big win against the talented Bucs. The Panthers are coming off a blowout at the hands of the not-so-good Seahawks. Everything about this game tells me that it won’t be close, unless the Falcons just don’t care.

Baltimore (-3) over HOUSTON — No, seriously, the spreads don’t really make sense. The Ravens are an elite team in this league, coming off a hard-fought battle against the perennial Super Bowl-contending Steelers. Houston is below .500 and has a pass defense as porous as the argument for not inducting George Steinbrenner into the Hall of Fame (it’s a travesty, really). Baltimore isn’t a particularly bad road team, and the Texans aren’t a particularly good home team. If the Texans keep this game within seven, I’d be shocked.

Tampa Bay (-3) over WASHINGTON — I quit. Home-field advantage is not this big of a deal. The Redskins got spanked by the Giants last week and lost by more than 30 points to the Eagles a few weeks ago. Tampa Bay played a tight game against Super Bowl contender Atlanta, and are still 7-5 themselves. Tampa can still earn a playoff berth, while the Redskins are all but out of it. I will admit, the loss of Talib is a big deal and the roster is hurting. Despite it all, though, the Bucs rally together to take this one by well more than three points.

Indianapolis (-2.5) over TENNESSEE — This spread should not be reasonable, but somehow for this Colt team it almost is. The Colts are just 6-6, which is simply unheard of with Peyton Manning at the helm. Injury problems have decimated the Colts, and it’s really sort of sad to see. And, yet, the Colts had an offensive outburst last week and were an overtime field goal away from a win. The Titans are hurting too and have been playing lackluster football of late. The pride and talent of the Colts comes through in this one, and we’re looking at a Colt victory.