This year may be the most intense Republican primary in recent memory, possibly outdoing the long 1976 brawl between Gerald Ford and Ronald Reagan. Donald Trump, by the majority of Americans, was not taken seriously after announcing his campaign on June 16, 2015, and it’s not entirely clear if he has the policy smarts for the job. What is certain is that Trump’s understanding of media, marketing and messaging elevated him from a joke-candidacy to the central story of the Republican race.
The Iowa caucus wasn’t Donald Trump’s best day, but there isn’t enough evidence to say that coming in second place after Ted Cruz derailed his campaign. The winner of the Republican caucuses in Iowa is seldom indicative of who the GOP will nominate — just ask Mike Huckabee and Rick Santorum. Cruz was able to mobilize grassroots and Evangelical conservatives in a small state where they dominate the Republican electorate. As the race turns to more secular states and those with larger media markets, Trump will likely rebound. Voters in New York, Ohio and California are less likely to meet the candidates or a volunteer and more likely to be influenced by television coverage, where Trump is magnetic.
Despite the Iowa setback, his standing in the national polls hasn’t tremored. The Huffington Post aggregate pollster has Trump’s average polling numbers more than double Cruz’s and triple Rubio’s. For six months he’s been leading the field and steadily expanding his lead, but there are only four to five left in the primary season. So if Trump manages to be defeated, he will have to collapse fast.
Can Donald Trump actually win a general election? In the context of past elections, it’s important not to rule it out.
Trump’s message will be compelling for many: the fiery reactionaries of the right-wing, the business Republicans of the Northeast and the blue-collar workers of the South and Midwest. He promises jobs. He promises rebuilding the nation’s infrastructure. There is potential crossover appeal for the Democratic voters. “Make America Great Again” is a simple but comprehensive branding scheme.
A lot of this will depend on the message the Democratic nominee lays out in the general election. Democratic voters are not certain what Hillary Clinton’s vision for the country is and why they should believe in it. If they were, she would not have tied the Iowa caucus with a Democratic Socialist. If Sen. Sanders is nominated, could he stop Trump with a progressive crusade? Or are the Democrats just asking to lose moderate voters?
Before we know it, this semester will be over. It’ll be May. Then September. Then November. The possibility for a Trump presidency is real, so start preparing now.