A key region of heated hostilities today is Palestine — the war in Gaza continues to claim lives, and the risk of the conflict escalating into a major war between regional powers still remains. However, there is one place in the Middle East that is overlooked and forgotten — Cyprus. This strategically vital island is in a dangerous situation, as old grievances pose the danger of new escalations. After 50 years of diplomatic dead ends, it is vital to push for reconciliation to prevent a wider regional war.
The island today is divided into two separate regimes — the Republic of Cyprus is a country officially recognized by the U.N., E.U. and most other organizations around the world. Cyprus governs only the southern two-thirds of the island and the remaining third is considered to be under occupation, governed by a mostly unrecognized and mostly unknown country — the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus.
Northern Cyprus came into existence when Turkey landed troops on the island in 1974 in aid of Turkish Cypriots oppressed and terrorized by radical groups seeking to drive them out of Cyprus altogether. This country is recognized only by Turkey, seen by the rest of the world as an extension of Ankara’s sphere of influence over a puppet state.
Attempts by the U.N. to draw plans of a federal state that would completely unite the island have all historically failed, and the failure to reconcile the two sections is precisely the problem that causes the geopolitical risk that is currently at hand. What is vital to understand is that regardless of if unification or a two-state solution is the answer, no meaningful progress can be achieved without diplomatic ties between the two halves to de-escalate the situation. This is vital not just for the island itself, but possibly for the entire Middle East because of the complex geopolitical situation at hand.
Often called an “unsinkable aircraft carrier,” Cyprus has the legacy and the potential future of a country built to facilitate war — as a reminder of the British colonial legacy, two major air bases and a number of military installations are dotted all over the island. Situated on the doorstep of arguably the most unstable corner of the planet, Cyprus has a unique strategic value for surveillance, logistics and most other kinds of military operations.
The strategic value of Cyprus has increased dramatically since the outbreak of the war in Gaza — as hostilities have increased, the “unsinkable aircraft carrier” has been eyed by Israel as a new base of operations for military forces acting in the region. This makes the tenuous situation on the island a deadly political gridlock that can trigger wider conflicts between countries that have a stake in maintaining their influence over Cyprus.
Currently, Turkey has a continuous political interest in maintaining the existence of Northern Cyprus, whereas Israel, Greece and the E.U. at large have a strategic interest in having a Western-orientated Cypriot regime. The conflict of these interests between an increasingly nationalistic Ankara and an adamant West carries the ultimate worst-case scenario risk of Turkey being drawn into the war in Gaza over its interests in Cyprus and further destabilizing the region.
Differences and pride must be set aside to facilitate a dialogue in good faith over the future of the island. There must exist a reliable process to settle down the “Cyprus Question” through peace before circumstances force it to be resolved possibly by an unprecedentedly bloody war. The problem is that this gridlock is not at all an easy one to reconcile.
This July, on the 50th anniversary of the war in Cyprus, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan announced that “a federal solution is not possible.” This is a statement seen by the southern half as a nonstarter that stifled progress toward unification. The Greek population in the south continues to deny a two-state solution that would recognize Turkish Cypriots as equals to the Greeks in the south and form diplomatic ties between the two sides.
Northern Cyprus remains almost unrecognized by the world, and this lack of political representation creates much of the same problems as it does in Palestine today. The vital process of dialogue can only realistically happen if Northern Cyprus is recognized as a sovereign state and an equal to the regime in the south. This is the first and hardest step at facilitating a definitive peace process that recognizes both halves as equals. Beyond anything else, however, easing the tensions over Cyprus today is vital for containing the hostilities in the Middle East. An avenue for diplomacy is wide open today, and it must be used fully to make an example for the rest of the region and for all of the future.
Deniz Gulay is a sophomore majoring in history.
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