Since the April 2014 kidnapping of over 200 schoolgirls from the town of Chibok in northeastern Nigeria, the conflict between the Islamist militant group popularly known as Boko Haram and the Nigerian Armed Forces has dominated international headlines regarding the country. Since 2009, the conflict has escalated drastically, and has evolved into a region-wide security crisis. Nigeria’s recently elected president, Muhammadu Buhari, was elected largely because many felt that he would be able to effectively deal with the military crisis in Nigeria’s north. Unfortunately at this critical time tensions are also brewing in Nigeria’s perpetually marginalized southeast, and unless Buhari and the Nigerian federal government take careful and concise action, they risk the re-ignition of a conflict that at its peak cut Nigeria’s oil production by as much as 50 percent and would divert security resources desperately needed to restore order in the northeast.
The Niger Delta region in Nigeria’s southeast has had a long and complex history with oil. After the transatlantic slave trade ended, the region became prized for its palm oil production. Since the discovery of petroleum in 1956, the regional and national economies have relied on the Delta’s large reserves which account for 70 percent of state income. However, by the 1990s, widespread corruption on the part of government officials and oil companies such as Shell and ENI led to a situation in which a poorly regulated oil industry was not only not benefitting local communities but was also leading to extensive environmental damage in the region’s fragile mangrove swamps that the locals relied on for fishing economies.
These economic and environmental problems compounded upon pre-existing tensions between those from Nigeria’s southeast and those from the rest of the country, particularly the north, and an insurgency broke out. The militants formed groups such as the Movement for the Emancipation of the Niger Delta (MEND) and the Niger Delta People’s Volunteer Force (NDPVF), and were mostly comprised of rural people of the Ijaw, Ogoni and other marginalized ethnicities. For years, the security situation in the Delta was intolerable, and foreign oil companies were practically unable to operate due to kidnappings, assassinations and the sabotage of and theft from oil pipelines which naturally led to a decline in the Nigerian economy.
Then, in 2009, an amnesty deal was agreed upon which saw former militants give up their fight in exchange for a monthly stipend of $330 and training for future employment in the oil industry. In addition, Goodluck Jonathan, an ethnic Ijaw from the Delta region and a key figure in negotiating the amnesty deal, was elected President of Nigeria in 2010.
However, the government has failed to properly address any of the root causes of the insurgency in the years since the amnesty deal. The oil industry remains largely unregulated and poverty remains endemic. This situation has already led to a decrease in security and a massive increase in piracy. Then, in May 2015, President Jonathan was replaced by the northerner Buhari who claimed he would “streamline” the amnesty deal that is set to expire in December. This has raised serious concerns amongst the ex-insurgents as the stipend provided by the deal has become their main source of income since government training has failed to secure them employment. Many have openly threatened to reignite the conflict.
In order to avoid this, Buhari has to renew the amnesty deal and phase it out gradually while simultaneously providing the employment and education opportunities promised to the ex-insurgents and passing legislation such as the long delayed Petroleum Industry Bill to regulate the oil industry.