By now I hope everyone is aware of the news affecting millions of people across the globe. No, I’m not talking about who won the Super Bowl. I’m talking about the ongoing chaotic violent rioting in Egypt. Last week, Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak announced that he would not step down from his position. Since then, hundreds of thousands of anti-government demonstrators have descended on Cairo.
Hundreds of protesters, both pro- and anti-Mubarak, armed with Molotov cocktails and clubs, have been injured and killed in clashes between the opposing sides. Egyptian police forces have done more to exacerbate the conflict than assuage it. The Egyptian military acts as a separate body and has already begun detaching itself from Mubarak. This will be important in the coming weeks. There will be a power vacuum whenever Mubarak steps down.
This conflict raises a collection of significant questions: Should we support the protesters? What is America’s role in this conflict? Do we have a responsibility to intervene?
I would like to explore a different avenue.
The rioting and instability in Egypt pushes the smallest and loneliest democracy in the Middle East into an even lonelier corner. Of course, I’m talking about Israel.
In the 63 years since its inception, Israel has yet to experience real lasting peace with any of its Arab neighbors. Egypt is the exception to that rule, since the Camp David Accords in 1979. And the current instability in Egypt acerbically threatens this relationship.
Some analysts predict that it won’t be long before the Muslim Brotherhood takes control of Egypt. That’s bad — really bad. I’ll tell you why.
It is well known that the Muslim Brotherhood despises what has been a positive relationship between Israel and Egypt. The Brotherhood has publicly stated their desire to eliminate any friendly ties to the Jewish State. This is not just rhetoric. The Muslim Brotherhood has actively aided Hamas, both economically and militarily.
To give you a better idea who we are dealing with here, let’s look at some of the things The Muslim Brotherhood has called for in the recent past. In September 2010, the Muslim Brotherhood Supreme Guide printed: “the Muslim’s real enemies, [are] not only Israel but also the United States. Waging jihad against both of these infidels is a commandment of Allah that cannot be disregarded.” Simply put, these are not the kind of people we want to see empowered.
Three major events within the past few recent years have all but obliterated any semblance of Israel having a friend in the Arab world: the Turkey Flotilla crisis, Hamas’ takeover of Gaza and lastly and the rise of Hezbollah in Israel’s northern neighbor Lebanon.
The prospect of Egypt being added to this list is entirely possible. Israel used to have a treaty with Iran, and we all know how that worked out.
Suppose the Muslim Brotherhood takes control. If Egypt was to rapidly shift from pro- to anti-Israel, the composition of the Middle East would reflect the will of the infamous 1967 Khartoum Conference. There, the Arab League issued their famous Three No’s for dealing with Israel: No recognition, No negotiation, No peace.
So what is Israel to do?
Needless to say, at the front of this crisis is the right of determination of the Egyptian people. It’s patently true that Mubarak has been a dictator for over 30 years and dictatorships are of course wrong and unsustainable. Still, many Egyptians have a worldview that is anti-American, and certainly anti-Israel. Even if there is a peaceful transition of power and democracy is upheld, what implications will that have for the West?
It is important to remember what peace with Egypt represents and ensures. If Israel can have peace with one Arab nation, one stable Arab nation, then there exists hope that that peace can spread. If not, those who wish to shred any notion of peaceful coexistence have all the more ammo to carry on their fight. For the terrorists, a broken Israel-Egypt alliance would just give them one more border from which to launch missiles into Jewish homes.
For those who support Israel, as well as those who seek to delegitimize it, the future of the Israel-Egypt relationship promises to carry broad consequences — it will affect the entire way we look at the Middle East.