When South Sudan officially declared its independence in July 2011, there were celebrations in the streets of Juba and the international community had high hopes for the world’s youngest country. But just three and a half years later, the country finds itself embroiled in yet another devastating civil war. This war, now almost a year old, has already resulted in thousands of deaths, over one million internally displaced persons and the threat of a serious famine in the coming months.
The war initially began as a political dispute within the ruling party, the Sudan People’s Liberation Movement (SPLM), namely tensions between President Salva Kiir and Vice President Riek Machar. But it very quickly evolved into a multi-faceted dispute that flamed ethnic tensions, particularly between Kiir’s Dinka people and Machar’s Nuer.
Since December 2013, there have been peace talks sponsored by the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD). These talks have only resulted in several incredibly brief ceasefires and very little real progress. While there is much to be done before a lasting peace can be achieved, there are two major steps that IGAD needs to take to speed up the process. First, they need to lead the way in imposing an arms embargo and other sanctions on both sides of the conflict. Second, they need to pave the way for a broader national political dialogue and include all armed factions in peace negotiations.
The sanctions and arms embargoes are necessary steps for a number of reasons. Such measures would help decrease the flow of weapons into the country, reducing violence. Placing sanctions on those who violate ceasefire agreements would incentivize warring parties to negotiate. IGAD must lead the way in the imposition of these measures because, as the mediator of the conflict, it has tremendous influence over how it is viewed by the international community. No international body such as the United Nations is going to impose sanctions if it doesn’t have the backing of regional powers like Uganda and Kenya.
While no members of IGAD are impartial, these measures are necessary to involve the international community and decrease the chance that this civil war will escalate into an all-consuming regional conflict.
Currently, the peace negotiations in Addis are focused on ending the conflict between Machar and Kiir; however, finding a resolution for the two of them only solves a small portion of the conflict. IGAD will have to open up more negotiation tracks to deal with the numerous armed groups that have plagued the country since (and before) independence and agree to disregard any settlement between Machar and Kiir. IGAD will also have to tackle the intercommunal violence that has defined this conflict and mediate between villages and ethnic groups. Finally, they’ll have to reopen the nation’s political parties forum so that marginalized politicians or political groups don’t see the need to launch an armed revolt.
With the rainy season over, there’s bound to be an escalation in the violence. Now, more than ever, IGAD must take the steps to ensure the success of the peace process.