France is perhaps the symbolic epitome of European political culture. The economic power of the European Union is led by Germany, the defense of the continent is dependent on the United States and the de facto capital of the union itself is in Belgium, yet France is where the fate of the Union will inevitably be forged. Political developments in recent years have formed the image of an unstable country, confused and unready. The democratic foundations of the French Republic must prepare to overcome major challenges with widespread repercussions in the years to come.
While France is one of the oldest democracies in Europe, this system has not been continuous but rather historically vulnerable to crises. As a result of revolutions, coups, military defeats and outright conquests, France is officially governed by the Fifth Republic, whose constitution and system of governance have had to be reformed constantly to avoid political gridlocks. Although successive French governments have maintained relative stability since the 1960s, the current unsteady political climate triggered by rising divisions among the French is a cause for concern, especially for the future of civil liberties in France and the larger European Union. The death of the Fifth Republic is a potential risk that is visible and acknowledged but is not being talked about enough. It is imperative to stress its importance for Europe’s future wellbeing.
The concern for France’s stability exists across two dimensions: administrative and ideological. The administrative concern stems from the fact that the powers of the Assembly and the president are at odds with each other, demonstrated and fueled by the most recent elections, which saw the French National Assembly split between centrists, nationalists — or the far-right — and leftists. The absence of a clear majority by any of these factions led to President Emmanuel Macron appointing a government of politicians he handpicked despite the popular vote being led by the leftists of the New Popular Front.
Moreover, the bypassing of the will of the electorate and, by extension, the will of the Assembly has put the presidency at odds with the legislature, which could trigger more severe constitutional crises if unchecked.
The root cause of this hurdle between the layers of government, however, is a deeper cause for concern. France’s stance on domestic and wider international issues is susceptible to ideological swings. As mentioned earlier, the current National Assembly is split in three while the centrist-right faction is expected to continue the course of pro-E.U. Atlanticism, both Nationalists and Leftists are more openly seeking to decouple France from its pivotal position in the European political sphere. Fueled in equal parts by social apathy, public discontent and political radicalization, these two apparent factions can exploit the current state of instability to pull France into their respective direction.
The effect of this on French society is a visible escalation of social divisions. While this rift is not concerning enough to worry about an uprising or even a civil war, it may still give credence to radical elements that can launch themselves into the mainstream. The opposition of these groups to France’s position in the E.U. could result in the disruption of economic integration that France depends on for its prosperity.
The fundamental reason why this current situation in France is worrying is because it is not unique in France’s history. During the existence of the previous Fourth Republic, France was divided over the issue of decolonization in Algeria, which triggered a series of constitutional crises that eventually led the nation to the brink of civil war. The leadership and organization of Charles de Gaulle eventually rescued the nation from that eventuality and the French political system was reformed into the current Fifth Republic. France’s current position as a military and economic power within the E.U. is contrasted by its political meddling in its former African colonies — a weak foreign policy that is incapable of balancing and resolving these diplomatic fronts will inevitably lead to a gridlock situation that could trigger political upheaval from radical factions.
France’s position in the E.U. and NATO is pivotal — barring a bellicose United States, a revanchist Turkey, a potentially isolationist Germany and a weak United Kingdom, France has one of the largest military forces within the geopolitical sphere of the E.U. The crisis in 1958 at the end of the Fourth Republic could only be averted thanks to strong leadership capable of breaking gridlocks. The absence of any such capable person or group in French politics makes this position all the more vulnerable to instability and even a complete change of course under a new government ready to abandon centrists’ foreign policy.
France now bears the telltale signs of an impending crisis. Macron’s perceived disregard for the outcome of elections and the increasing divisions within the country along ideological lines are both issues that deplete France’s unity and political power. The mere possibility of France’s democracy being undermined in a way that could give way to an erratic Sixth Republic, or worse, a France that is no longer a republic, must compel the French civil society to defend its electoral processes and safeguard national unity above political differences.
Deniz Gulay is a sophomore double-majoring in history and Russian.
Views expressed in the opinions pages represent the opinions of the columnists. The only piece that represents the view of the Pipe Dream Editorial Board is the staff editorial.