I remember the first time I wrote about Turkey for Pipe Dream. I defined Turkey’s state of affairs back then as a metamorphosis; at the start of its second century in existence, it felt as if my home country was approaching a major turning point. Then again, at the time, I was primarily concerned with Turkey’s place among the world’s nations. Reflecting on what has happened in the past few days in Turkey, I have become more worried about the country’s internal strife. There is now a legitimate reason to worry that the nation might be on the brink of tearing itself apart, the effects of which can alter the course of the country forever.
To imagine what tomorrow might bring, we must first understand what is at hand today. The Turkish government has been the target of widespread protests across the country’s big cities. The spark came from an unexpectedly harsh political move: Istanbul’s mayor and a key opposition leader, Ekrem İmamoğlu, was arrested on allegations of corruption and ties to terrorist organizations. His arrest was swiftly followed by the revocation of his university diploma from Istanbul University, and since Turkish presidential elections require candidates to have a university diploma, this move effectively makes him ineligible to be a candidate against current president Recep Tayyip Erdoğan.
The action taken against İmamoğlu is a direct move against the Turkish opposition. He was one of Turkey’s leading figureheads, successful enough to challenge the incumbent conservative Justice and Development Party, or AKP, in local elections in 2019 and 2024. His success in defeating AKP in Istanbul launched his popularity, and this created the motivation among the opposition parties for him to become the candidate to run against Erdoğan in the presidential elections. His arrest and the revocation of his diploma are, therefore, clear attempts to stifle this steadily growing movement.
The resulting backlash has now boiled into mass protests and riots across the major cities of Turkey; spearheaded by political activism groups aided by university students, large masses of the disgruntled and disillusioned followed them. Frequent reports of violent clashes on the streets and brutal police crackdowns have appeared only to strengthen the resolve of the protestors.
Twenty-three years of AKP’s uninterrupted conservative rule over the country has resulted in a weaker economy, more dire living conditions, fewer opportunities for Turkish youth and a loss of hope in the future for many of its citizens. These are the motivations that boil over into anger and fuel the ongoing protests, but protests alone cannot bring the necessary changes to the country. The Turkish youth is the vanguard of this movement, and the youth will decide where Turkey goes from here.
I, as someone who lived in Turkey for 19 years, have the same question as anyone else who is observing these events: Where do we really go from here?
The first option is the pessimistic, but also the predictable one — letting protests go on for a few more weeks would eventually lead to the movement losing steam and dissipating, İmamoğlu would remain in custody, and the opposition would be dealt a significant blow to its strength. This would mimic the outcome of the 2013 Gezi Protests, which historically gathered much support but did not result in a change of government. The incumbent regime could thereafter further solidify its political control, further purge its opposition and exacerbate the ongoing democratic backsliding.
The alternative option is to build and develop the movement on a bigger scale. Protests are a solid beginning, but justice can only be found when the government is challenged through direct economic and social action. Organizing boycotts, systematic strikes and coordinated rallies as a coalition of opposition factions is necessary to represent national unity while avoiding anarchy and uncoordinated chaos. This is precisely the opportunity for the Turkish youth to show its strength by mobilizing the population not for a mere ideological front but for a popular movement representing all of Turkey.
In between these two options is also what I call the “sum of all fears,” a dark but possible outcome. Turkey is no stranger to political crises, and in times of turmoil, the Turkish Armed Forces traditionally step in to overthrow the government and impose harsh regimes to stabilize the country. Military rule, though very unlikely, is also not impossible. And while Turkey faces serious challenges of democratic backsliding, the establishment of an autocratic military emergency regime would be the definitive end of republicanism in Turkey for the foreseeable future.
I believe in the strength of organized masses. Should they act in unison and with clear objectives, I believe the Turkish people can enact justice and mend the ailing order of law in their country. Instability in Turkey is, at any rate, a geopolitical threat to the West, as an autocratic regime is bound to make the country become politically, diplomatically and economically isolated from its Western partners. It is the duty of the new generation to make history and direct the nation toward restoring its democratic roots — all of Turkey’s future depends on its vigor today.
Deniz Gulay is a sophomore double-majoring in history and Russian. Views expressed in the opinions pages represent the opinions of the columnists.
Views expressed in the opinions pages represent the opinions of the columnists. The only piece that represents the view of the Pipe Dream Editorial Board is the staff editorial.