The current situation in the Far East is exceedingly precarious. There may not be any visible signs of it today, but the bigger game of geopolitics between China and the United States suggests that this sphere is where tensions will build in the coming years. And while Beijing’s main objective is to obtain Taiwan, the grand dynamic between the two superpowers is defined by the boundaries of their political influence. In the middle of this dynamic sits Japan, and the few years ahead are critical for the role the country should play in this equation.
On the other hand, Japan cannot escape this equation — the reality is that Japan relies on U.S. support and aid for its defense, and in return, the United States needs bases on Japanese soil to put pressure on China. Embracing a policy of neutrality fueled by anti-militarism leaves Japan unprepared for future crises and jeopardizes the entire Asia-Pacific defense scheme developed by Washington in the past 80 years.
Japan is a major economic power in Asia, but this does not translate into military strength. This is because Japan has a difficult relationship with the prospect of arming itself due to deeply cultural reasons — the memories and humiliation brought by the Second World War forced the Japanese to abandon their militarist tendencies, embracing pacifism in its place. The Constitution of Japan formally renounced the right to wage war in all forms, and barring minor territorial disputes with Russia, Japan had neither any territorial ambitions nor a motivation to create a sphere of influence like that of Russia, Germany or the United States.
The changing tides of geopolitics may eventually force Japan to reconsider this attitude and it is impossible to avoid internal strife among the Japanese public no matter which direction is taken. The center of this strife is Okinawa, an island governed by Japan sitting halfway between its home islands and Taiwan. It is the primary site of U.S. military buildup against China, and it is fueling a generational dispute between the elderly and the youth of the island.
The memories of Japanese imperialist militarism and the troublesome presence of the U.S. Navy put the older generation against rearmament. In contrast, the growing frequency of airspace breaches caused by Chinese aircraft over Taiwan motivates the youth there to make Okinawa a fortress for the cause of defending Western democracy in the Far East. The former demographic does not want to see Japan using so much as a pistol beyond its borders, while the latter is eager to see Japan become the vanguard, the first nation in the line of fire against China, regardless of the price paid in blood should a war break out in the future.
Japan needs to find a balance between these ideological extremes. Between total militarism and total pacifism, the ideal position emphasizes self-defense that prioritizes Japan’s protection. Beyond any risks coming from Beijing or pressures that may come from Washington D.C., Japan needs to have an independent, self-sustaining and pragmatic defense scheme.
Tokyo needs such a program to counteract the jingoistic attitude of hawkish politicians that argue for rapid militarization as well as the agitation of factions that intend for peace but compromise Japan’s pragmatic needs. Curiously, Japan already embraces this balance as its armed forces are officially known as “Japanese Self-Defense Forces,” strictly implying that Japan does not intend to be an aggressor in an escalation.
A different dimension of this problem is Japan’s economic strength. While it may be very formidable as a prominent G7 country, Japan suffers from the same array of problems the European Union is facing, as its equipment stocks depend on continuous United States aid, training and upkeep. A truly independent defense policy, especially in these times when President Donald Trump’s foreign policy is casting doubts on the United States’ dependability, makes it unquestionably necessary for Japan to seek its own means to procure weapons.
All such questions must come before any discussions on procuring a nuclear arsenal can even begin, as Japan obtaining nuclear weapons right now would only escalate the ongoing tensions and bring the proverbial “midnight” closer to reality. Currently, the big task ahead for Tokyo is to manage its internal politics and arrange the correct compromises for a sustainable defense policy independent of domestic militarism or foreign exploitation.
Without a careful program to ensure Japan’s sovereignty, there cannot be a meaningful discussion of what role it can play in the region. Before ever considering being involved in large geopolitical questions, Japan must first prioritize its own interests and seek to deter conflicts from its soil through pragmatic self-defense. Ensuring that such a program is capable of safeguarding Japan, but at the same time also safe from being used in escalating tensions, is necessary for Tokyo’s geopolitical interests.
Deniz Gulay is a sophomore double-majoring in history and Russian.
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