Since the summer of 2014, the self-described Islamic State group has captured the world’s attention. After it seized vast swathes of land in Iraq and Syria, ISIL became synonymous with terrorism. The group has continued to dominate headlines this past week after it was driven out of the symbolic Syrian city of Dabiq and fought against at the onset of the operation to recapture the Iraqi city of Mosul.
As ISIL continues to dominate the headlines and its ability to fight a conventional war in the Middle East declines, many have been discussing what the future holds for the so-called War on Terror. While much of the discussion has naturally been theorizing about the future of ISIL, there is another organization that still holds a powerful presence in much of the world: Al-Qaida.
For the past two years, Al-Qaida has been brushed aside by both the media and the international community in order to focus on the threat posed by its offshoot, ISIL. However, the group has continued to conduct deadly attacks and operations while solidifying its presence in parts of Yemen and the Sahara-Sahel region.
After the invasion of Afghanistan in 2001, Al-Qaida evolved into a relatively decentralized movement with regional branches, such the Islamic Maghreb, based in North and West Africa, and Al-Qaida in the Arabian Peninsula, based in Yemen. Even after the death of Osama bin Laden, these groups continued to thrive, particularly after they took advantage of the chaos caused by the Arab Spring in Yemen and Libya.
In November 2015, Islamic Maghreb carried out an attack on a hotel in the capital city of Mali, a country they have had a presence in for over a decade. This was followed in January 2016 by an attack on a hotel in Ouagadougou, Burkina Faso and then in March, an attack on a beach in the Ivory Coast. Altogether these attacks resulted in the deaths of more than 50 people and have proven that, despite massive counter-terrorism efforts undertaken by Western and local governments, Islamic Maghreb was still more than capable of carrying out complex attacks. According to analyst Katherine Zimmerman, they pose no less of a threat in the long term than the core Al-Qaida once did.
The Arabian Peninsula differs from Islamic Maghreb in that, due to the conflict in Yemen and widespread distrust of the government there, they actually have the support of the population in the areas under its control. This makes it much more dangerous when compared to groups like ISIL, which brutalizes the people living under its regime and has therefore lost most of the support they may have once enjoyed. This means that until the conflict in Yemen is resolved, the Arabian Peninsula not only has a base of operations from which it can plan and execute attacks like the Charlie Hebdo massacre — which was carried out by Arabian Peninsula affiliates — but it can continue to spread its message, presenting itself as a reasonable alternative to Houthi rebel or Yemeni governmental rule.
Al-Qaida affiliates have spent the last few years entrenching themselves further into the regions under their control. Despite the attention that is justly given to defeating ISIL, it’s nonetheless important to remember that as they lose ground in the war in Iraq and Syria, other groups will regain prominence in the eyes of the militant jihadist community.
Benjamin Goldberg is a junior double-majoring in Africana studies and history.