With two weeks to go before basketball conference tournaments begin, and a month left until the NCAA tournament gets underway, here’s a look at some non-America East teams who are in, some teams who need help and some teams who have no chance of dancing come March.
Locks:
Texas (18-7, 8-3 Big 10):
After smoking nationally ranked Oklahoma State on Monday by 29, the Longhorns are looking good. Kevin Durant is the most exciting player in the nation, and if I were an NBA GM he would be my first overall pick in the draft, no questions asked. The 18-year-old averages 25 ppg and 12 rpg, and his stock keeps rising. This team has a legitimate chance at getting to the Final Four.
Florida (24-2, 11-0 SEC):
The defending champs have the longest winning streak in the NCAA at 17 and counting. They have no doubt benefited from the play of their returning starters, who turned down the NBA for a shot at a repeat. All five starters average in double figures, showing just how balanced this team really is. Even more impressive: their two losses were by a combined six points.
UCLA (21-3, 10-2 Pac 10):
Last year’s runner-up has been playing like it has something to prove this year. The Bruins have only one bad loss (at Stanford) and are 7-1 against top-25 teams. Arron Afflalo leads the team with 18 points per game, while sophomores Josh Shipp and Darren Collison add 13 points per game. Had Jordan Farmar not left after last season to jump to the NBA, this team would be undefeated right now and getting ready to raise another championship banner to the rafters of Pauley Pavilion in two months.
On the Bubble:
Duke (19-7, 6-6 ACC):
I know what you are probably thinking: Duke, not in the ‘lock’ column? Monday was the first time in 11 years that the Blue Devils were not ranked in the top 25. Four straight losses before finally winning at Boston College on Wednesday have sent them spiraling downward. Duke is last in the ACC in scoring, averaging less than 70 points per game. Its shot selection has been poor, especially during the losing streak, and coach K’s bunch might need to win the ACC tournament to get in. Who could have predicted that in November?
Syracuse (18-8, 7-5 Big East):
For the past two seasons, the Orangemen have only gotten into the tournament due to a clutch performance by now-graduated Gerry McNamara. This year, Syracuse has had to get by in season one of ‘the PG era’ (post-Gerry). Eric Devendorf has been hampered by injuries this season, but has still managed to score 13 points per game. He needs to get healthy, and coach Boeheim needs to give freshman sensation Paul Harris more minutes. The guy can literally take over the game if given the chance.
Texas Tech (16-10, 5-6 Big 10):
The Red Raiders had back-to-back wins over No. 5 Kansas and No. 6 Texas A&M, but have dropped five consecutive games since then before finally notching a win against No. 5 Texas A&M on Monday. Those are three marquee wins and it might be enough to get them in, but a sub-.500 conference record never looks good to the selection committee, especially when you lose games to teams with a low RPI and strength of schedule. Bobby Knight needs to talk some sense into his troops, unless they want to miss the tournament for the second consecutive season.
Out:
UConn (16-9, 5-6 Big East):
The heavy favorite to win the tournament last year lost too much talent to the NBA (Boone, Gay, Armstrong and Williams). The Huskies have no upperclassmen on the team, and the inexperience of the young team has shown up on the scoreboard this year with its very sub-par play this season. With six games to go, they could use a marquee win at Syracuse or Georgetown, and would still need to win a game or two in the Big East tourney. If not, see you in the NIT.
George Mason (14-12, 8-8 CAA):
Who can forget about last year’s Cinderella story? The Patriots beat Michigan State, North Carolina, Wichita State and Connecticut before losing in the final four to eventual champion Florida. It was a magical run, but unfortunately they will not be in the big dance this year. With too many better teams in their conference, including Virginia Commonwealth and Hofstra, it is highly unlikely that George Mason wins the conference tournament and gains the automatic bid.
Oklahoma (15-9, 6-5 Big 10):
The Sooners may be above .500 in Big 10 play, but they have had a very easy schedule thus far. They have a 1-4 record vs. top 25 teams this year and only one quality win, coming a week ago against No. 17 Oklahoma State. In order to even be considered by the selection committee, Oklahoma needs to win its last five games, including home games against No. 8 Kansas and No. 6 Texas A&M.