LOCK:

Pittsburgh (-3.0) over CHICAGO

I got absolutely butchered in last week’s picks, and rightfully so. I hope my picks this week aren’t embarrassing, but this is hard stuff. By my watch, this is the only lock that I can predict. I don’t like Chicago because Jay Cutler’s infantile meltdowns are never going to stop, but also because the Pittsburgh pass rush will wreak havoc on him. Brian Urlacher is out for the year, but the Steelers will be missing Troy Polamalu too. The difference is that the other 10 guys on Pittsburgh’s defense are still phenomenal, and that’s more than I can say about Da Bears.

INDIANAPOLIS (-3.0) over Miami

Miami isn’t bad this year, but I really thought Indy would play better against the Jaguars last week. This is another tough game to call; I feel like it could go either way. But at the end of the day, the Colts have one of the best in the business in Peyton Manning, and it’s tough to pick against that with a Miami defense that is decent at best. Watch out for a good game here.

ATLANTA (-6.5) over Carolina

Jake Delhomme is a train wreck, that we know. But this game will be lost by Carolina’s defense, which looked to be formidable before a forgettable preseason. Atlanta’s offense will be far too much for this group, even though Carolina’s running game will flourish because it’s the only good thing the team has going for it right now.

TENNESSEE (-6.5) over Houston

I thought the Texans’ offense was going to tear teams apart this year, and maybe it’s just bad luck that they have to start off the season with two tough defensive matchups. But they didn’t just lose last week; they sucked. Did that look like last year’s No. 4 passing attack against the Jets last Sunday? The Texans will run into another talented defense, and even though the Titans don’t have a stellar offense, the running game should have a big enough week to keep the game in Tennessee’s favor.