There are two apparently antithetical trends in housing for Binghamton University students. Off-campus living is becoming more popular, and at the same time, the University is massively expanding dorm capacities. Something’s gotta give.

Simply put, the numbers are off.

The East Campus Housing Project, the goliath of a dorm community that’s rapidly rising above where Newing College used to be, is planned to increase the number of students who sleep on campus by 3,000.

The construction has been on the books for years. At the same time more and more upperclassmen have been making the jump to city-living. In 2009, only one in five students who lived on campus their freshman year were still paying room and board to BU in their fourth.

That was in 2009, too, when the only major off-campus complex for students was University Plaza. In a very short time, 20 Hawley and the Newman House will be up and running ‘ putting another 1,000 students on one block in Downtown Binghamton with the snap of a finger. And there will still be an outlet of affordable off-campus housing across the bridge, as the Westside Neighborhood Project continues to compete with corporate developers and continue to draw students away from campus and into Binghamton’s residential areas.

How, then, does the University plan to entice students to stay on campus? In view of some of Downtown’s allures ‘ 20 Hawley promises underground parking and a movie theater ‘ the school’s ad campaign seems simple-minded.

In recent comments to Pipe Dream, administrators have used some weird logic in their sales pitch. While acknowledging that personal privacy is a major draw off campus and announcing the school’s plans to adjust accordingly, Brian Rose, vice president for Student Affairs, goes off message. He uses the promise that freshmen will be living alongside seniors to market the necessity of upperclassmen on campus.

We doubt that many seniors are drawn to the excitement of having freshmen as neighbors.

On balance, the improvement of the area’s off-campus environment should be good for both Binghamton proper and the University. But we worry that the school won’t be able to weather the shift gracefully.

With both on- and off-campus markets preparing to expand, all signs point to huge student population growth in the near future. The University wants at least 3,000 more bodies to fill up the Newing Metropolis, and with more students moving into the city at the same time, a good deal more than 3,000 new students will be needed to fully stock BU’s dorms.

This year was arguably the most competitive application class in Binghamton’s history ‘ even with fewer applicants in total. Let’s hope the University doesn’t have to sacrifice our selectivity because of short-sightedness in campus planning.