Months of speculation were brought to an end with the announcement that both Sen. Hillary Clinton and Sen. Barack Obama had formed presidential exploratory committees, making them possible candidates for the 2008 presidential election. The announcements came within days of each other, and with polls showing very favorable conditions for a Democratic nominee in 2008, there has been a lot of discussion on cable news about the possibility of the first female or African-American president.
At the moment Hillary Clinton is more well known around the country, but many are worried that she could cause too great of a division within the party to receive the presidential nomination.
“At the moment Hillary Clinton is clearly the more polarizing figure but potentially, who knows,” said Professor Jonathon Krasno, director of undergraduate studies for the political science department.
While most people already recognize the Clinton name and some already have a negative opinion of her, there are many more people that aren’t sure about Obama either.
“You can clearly see it in the polls for Hillary, whereas in Obama’s case there are people who like him and people who don’t know about him,” said Krasno.
This lack of information however has made it difficult to gauge Obama’s long-term chances, leaving many to wonder if his fate will be the same as Howard Dean, who was the frontrunner for the 2004 nomination.
“Frontrunners often don’t survive,” Krasno said. “Particularly in Obama’s case when people find out more information they might not find things they like.”
Moderates are always an important demographic for candidates, and both Clinton and Obama have begun to foster a more “centrist” image. Clinton has been trying to appeal to moderates for some time, while Obama’s shorter term of service will leave many looking to his voting record.
“Hillary has tried hard to appeal to moderates, but she still has a polarizing image,” said Prof. Krasno. “Obama has a much more liberal voting record, but people’s perception of him is much softer.”
Brian Young, the Souther Tier regional chair for College Democrats of New York, believes that Obama will fair better when dealing with the moderate crowd. “Obama probably plays better with moderates because his message plays more to centrists,” he said. “Hillary tries to play both sides too much which makes moderates angry.”
For most people, the major issue in the 2006 midterm elections was the war in Iraq, with many candidates running successfully on the “anti-war” ticket and winning Congress for the Democrats. Even with talk of global warming and domestic issues, the war remains the big issue for most politicians.
“If we still have 100,000-plus troops in Iraq in 2008, then the war will be a big issue,” Krasno said.
He added that even some Republicans have slowly begun to take a critical stance on the war and the president’s policies. “In an article by Robert Novak, a Republican source said that if the war is still on in ’08, their losses will exceed ’06 elections,” he said.
In a time when many voters have grown tired of Washington, many look at Clinton or Obama and see the possibility for change. Others see a somewhat inexperienced junior senator and a candidate that is stigmatized by her husband’s presidency. Students have always been an important demographic for Democrats, and with both Clinton and Obama in a statistical dead heat it is difficult to guess who will receive the Democratic nomination.
“I think it’s actually going to be pretty spilt, with Hillary being our senator,” said Young on which way SUNY-Binghamton students may vote. “But I do think that Obama plays very well with the youth vote.”
The race is still too early to call, and only the coming months will tell which frontrunner, if any, will be left standing.