Another week of football, another week of fantasy headaches in the books. So you had T.O. on your bench, started Ray Rice and watched your beautiful savior Michael Vick get his ribs bashed in. I feel like everyone got their share of bad fantasy news this week in some way, shape or form, so hopefully you had Arian Foster or Antonio Gates going nuts to make you feel better. Here are some thoughts on the ups and downs of Week 4.
TERRELL OWENS ‘ I told my friend on Saturday, ‘I just dropped T.O., but I bet he has a big game Sunday.’ Just my luck; he had an insane day with 220 yards and two scores. On one hand, T.O. has proven to Carson Palmer that he deserves his quarterback’s targets and that he can trust him. That being said, I don’t think this will continue. Remember last year when he had one monstrous game for the Bills, and every other fantasy week was either awful or mediocre? On that team, it was because they sucked, but the Bengals HAVE a clear No. 1, and that’s Chad Ochocinco, who has been underperforming. It’s a tough call, but if I had to make it, I’d say you can roll with T.O. but not as a WR1; he might give you one or two more weeks like this during the season and the rest will be duds.
LADAINIAN TOMLINSON ‘ Every NFL analyst is glowing about LT’s vintage performance against the Bills. But have you forgotten how awful the Bills’ run defense is? Don’t overhype his Week 4 performance. That said, he should be a very safe RB2 play for a while. He has put up points every week, and the outburst in Buffalo shows that he’s still got it, which may prompt the coaches to give him even more looks. The only thing that hurts his value down the road is a restriction on his workload, but this guy is the Jet you want, not Shonn Greene.
RAY RICE ‘ I sat Rice this week, and it hurt, but it turned out to be the right call. An injury bug coupled with a Steelers matchup meant his output would be low, but curiously, his output has been low every single week this season. The consensus No. 4 pick in the draft (and I picked him at No. 3 on one occasion) also must play Denver next week, a team that has allowed the fewest points to fantasy running backs and just bottled up Chris Johnson. Rice owners are in trouble, but they shouldn’t panic. There are some soft matchups later in the season for Rice, so he will pick it up. But I’d be stunned if he recovers to top-five RB level, which in itself will be a massive disappointment.
STEVE SMITH (NYG) ‘ Talk about disappointment. Smith has averaged five fantasy points per week and watched Hakeem Nicks become the No. 1 guy in New York. With Mario Manningham also playing well, can Smith recover? Smith is getting the looks; he’s on pace for 80-90 catches this year. But is the problem with his quarterback not giving him big opportunities, or is it with Smith not making big plays himself? It seems to be a combination of the two, and I don’t really see this getting better any time soon.
VERNON DAVIS and MICHAEL CRABTREE ‘ Not a single double-digit point week to speak of for last year’s No. 1 tight end. This one definitely isn’t his fault; the 49ers have been absolutely terrible for four weeks. Crabtree is relatively unproven so it’s tough to place blame there, but San Francisco just isn’t gelling right now. The offense can’t get rolling; the defense, which was No. 1 in fantasy last year, is last this season. The team is a mess, and the only safe start is Frank Gore. Davis will give you decent starting TE numbers, but not like last year, while Crabtree needs to be on your bench.
CALVIN JOHNSON ‘ Is the potential that everyone has been hyping up for Johnson finally shining through? He’s averaging five catches a game and put up two scores last week, and all of this with the backup QB for the Lions, which is supposed to be the worst team ever. Finally it is safe to roll with Johnson ‘ for now. Remember what his fantasy career has given you before; just be careful with this one. Maybe he’d make for good trade bait right about now, if you’re shopping him.
AARON RODGERS ‘ The best fantasy player last year has been respectable this year, but it worries me. During his two good weeks, 2 and 3, he had 26 and 22 points, respectively, but he also ran for a touchdown in each game, meaning his quarterback fantasy points were really 20 and 16; add those to the 11 and 17 from Weeks 1 and 4 and he looks fairly pedestrian. He’s throwing more interceptions as well. He’s clearly safe to roll with as a starting QB, but to expect numbers like last year is not a good idea. He absolutely can, but so far he has not been a phenomenal fantasy passer like we all expected him to be.