Welcome back to fantasy football! It took entirely too long for fantasy football to come back to us, but the wait is over. Here are some thoughts on Week 1 in the world of fantasy: the studs, the duds and the sleepers. Hopefully you’ll find some of this advice helpful ‘ unless the person reading this is in one of my fantasy leagues, in which case, I’m just messing with you and you’re going to lose to me.
ARIAN FOSTER ‘ OK, clearly he’s the first name out of every single fantasy column this weekend, and why shouldn’t he be? He broke loose for 231 yards and three touchdowns against the mighty Colts. But let’s stop for a minute here: Indianapolis had the NFL’s 24th-best run defense last season, and the team has a history of giving up big games to big backs. Also, don’t forget which quarterback led the entire NFL in passing yards last year (Matt Schaub, of course) and the fact that the best fantasy receiver on the planet is Andre Johnson. I can almost guarantee that Schaub will not throw fewer than 20 passes again this year like he did on Sunday, and this will always be a pass-first offense. Foster can do well, but he won’t be nearly this good every week. Start him in confidence, but don’t complain when he doesn’t score 41 fantasy points.
MATT FORTE ‘ Welcome back to relevance, Forte. He had a silly day with 201 all-purpose yards and two touchdowns. But just like I mentioned with Foster, you need to temper your expectations here. This game was against the Lions; granted, they almost beat the Bears, but Detroit has had a lackluster defense for years. Maybe Forte can once again be a star fantasy back, but again, don’t expect huge things from him as the season goes on, especially having to play the Vikings and Packers’ defense four total times.
HAKEEM NICKS ‘ It’s tough trying to figure out which Giants receiver is going to blow up on any given day. Last year, Mario Manningham was the guy early on, Steve Smith was the guy for most of the season and then Nicks hauls in three touchdown passes against Carolina last weekend. This one may not actually be a fluke; if he stays in Eli Manning’s good favor, he will be a consistent fantasy starter this year.
SANTANA MOSS ‘ I’ve been taking chances on this guy for two years with no rewards to show for it, but this may be the year. He’s Donovan McNabb’s favorite target, but McNabb had a rough night against the Cowboys. Moss still put up 77 receiving yards, so if McNabb regains his Philly form and Moss stops dropping passes, he will have DeSean Jackson-type numbers this season.
C.J. SPILLER ‘ I love my new Buffalo boy, but he laid an egg in his fantasy debut. He may become another poster child for being a wicked fantasy talent on a God-awful football team, getting him minimal numbers all season long. Fred Jackson looked healed on Sunday, and I doubt Spiller will ever see any more than 10 or 15 carries in any contest. But invest in him like you’d invest in Felix Jones: the sheer explosive talent may just warrant a spot in your lineup.
BRETT FAVRE ‘ Everyone’s been wondering if this selfish old bat can put up fantasy numbers like he did last year, or even if he can put up respectable numbers at all. I answer no to both questions. I know Favre is good, and even without Sidney Rice he will find places to throw the ball, but I don’t see an extraordinary year out of him. If he’s your starting quarterback, I would look to invest in some insurance for him, because he’s never been a bigger fantasy risk than this year.
MOHAMED MASSAQUOI ‘ Sleeper potential here. He built his sleeper case last year, and now he has a better (but not very good) quarterback in Jake Delhomme. All I’m saying is that the upside is there. He’ll only catch three or four balls per game, but he’s a big-play guy.
MIKE SIMS-WALKER ‘ Drafted as a strong WR2 this year, he laid a huge egg in the season opener while quarterback David Garrard threw three touchdowns to other guys. You can’t count on Sims-Walker this year, but could you really even count on him last year either? He’s wildly inconsistent; roll the dice at your own risk.