The time to get aggressive when drafting hitters begins at first base. With several superstar first base sluggers, and several utility players who qualify for first base in some leagues, this player will serve as an anchor for your whole offense. However, it is important to know the sleepers as well, in the event that he should get hurt and miss an extended period of time.
If you can snatch an Albert Pujols, Ryan Howard, David Ortiz or Lance Berkman-type player in the first round, you will invariably receive that anchor. But if these players get drafted before you get a chance, do not panic. There are many, many good hitting first basemen, including ones that you may not have even considered. But it is important to know which ones are golden and which ones are liabilities.
Paul Konerko is possibly my favorite player in all of fantasy baseball. An excellent hitter, he will most likely be the seventh, eighth, ninth or even 10th first baseman to get drafted in a 12-team league. Last year, he batted .313 with 35 homers, 113 RBI and 97 runs scored. In 2004 and 2005 he hit at least 40 home runs with at least 100 RBI’s. His batting average improved by .30 points from 2005 to 2006. Jermaine Dye had a career year last year and will most likely put up the same numbers again. If that happens, expect Konerko’s numbers to be the same, if not better, than last year’s due to his protection in the lineup.
American League MVP Justin Morneau finally lived up to expectations last year when the Twins drafted him. In 157 games, he batted .321 with 34 homers and 130 RBI’s, and scored 97 runs. If he keeps hitting behind Joe Mauer, expect him to receive many solid RBI opportunities. With the steady improvement of the Twins’ entire offense last year, expect him to score about the same amount of runs as well.
Adrian Gonzalez moved from the Texas Rangers to the San Diego Padres last year, and the switch got him the playing time he deserved, resulting in respectable fantasy numbers likely to increase this year. In 156 games he batted .304 with 24 homers, 82 RBI’s and scored 83 runs. If the batting average is there from a young player, expect his other numbers to follow suit, especially on a young improving team in the National League. Consider saving a high draft choice for a pitcher if planning on drafting Gonzalez. A draft pick for him in a later round is a steal.
If you want to look real deep, consider waiting for Ryan Shealy of the Kansas City Royals. With arguably the best prospect in baseball, Alex Gordon, being called up, forcing Mark Teahen to move to the outfield, the Royals will have a solid front portion of their lineup heading into the season. If the Royals trade Mike Sweeney, Shealy’s value will rise dramatically in just a short time.
STAY AWAY FROM MARK TEIXEIRA. I know it sounds tempting to draft him if he is available come your turn, but buyers beware. Granted, he had a career year in 2005, but my gut tells me he will not see those numbers this year. In the first half of last year, Teixeira had only nine homers and 49 RBI’s with a .275 batting average. His numbers spiked up in the second half, but only because he had Carlos Lee offering him protection in the lineup. For this season, with Gary Matthews Jr. gone to the Angels, don’t expect Teixeira to get nearly as many RBI opportunities.
Prince Fielder and Adam LaRoche are intriguing players. Neither one will be playing in a great offensive system, but both have the capability to produce solid numbers. However, both are very young talents with the capacity to dramatically improve. LaRoche will probably see more RBI chances because he will bat behind Jason Bay.