Lock: INDIANAPOLIS (-10) over Denver: The Broncos burned me last week, and if not for a last-second field goal in week one and a well-timed time out in week two, they would be 0-3 against some pretty lousy competition. Also, in case anyone forgot, the Colts won the Super Bowl last season.

DETROIT (+3) over Chicago: With 10,000 wide receivers and the No. 1 ranked passing offense, Detroit can do some damage against Da Bears’ vaunted defense. On the other side of the ball, expect the Lions’ 30th-ranked defense to contain the Bears’ 30th-ranked offense in what might go down as the ugliest matchup of the year.

CAROLINA (-3) over Tampa Bay: The Panthers are unsettled at quarterback right now, and John Fox isn’t even revealing who will be under center for Sunday’s game. Luckily for them, Tampa Bay’s porous run defense will make the passing game a non factor, regardless of who is taking the snaps.

Seattle (-2 1/2) over SAN FRANCISCO: Everyone keeps telling me the Seahawks are not a playoff team. Are you kidding me? Have you seen the NFC West? Have you seen Seattle’s offense? The road to an NFC West title goes through Seattle despite the fact that no one outside the Pacific Northwest agrees.