LOCK: Kansas City (-1) over DENVER ‘ I’ll admit, I did not see this coming entering the season. Kyle Orton has been better than expected, but the rest of that Denver team has played well below expectation. KC beats bad teams, and that’s what Denver is.

Houston (+2) over JACKSONVILLE ‘ The Texans pass defense is bad, but David Garrard isn’t the one who’s going to take advantage of that fact. And it’s not like the Jags are particularly good at home ‘ other than a fluky win over Indy and a win over the aforementioned Broncos, Jacksonville has had a pair of lopsided home losses.

TAMPA BAY (+6.5) over Carolina ‘ I’ve got to think John Fox can’t get out of Carolina fast enough. His Panthers are just sustaining injury after injury, and that was after the team had already been underachieving. Tampa may not be Super Bowl contenders, but they’re good enough to beat a team that is crumbling.

St. Louis (+6) over SAN FRANCISCO ‘ OK, why the sudden respect for the Niners? They’ve been bad all season, with a pair of wins against average teams. They play well at home, but six points against a vastly improved Rams team is just too much to accept.