The barely-above-.500 St. Louis Cardinals, the Florida Gators in both basketball and football ‘ the last year has been very kind to underdogs. All this press about Peyton Manning, the Colts’ dynamic offense ‘ sure, the Bears are swarmed by reporters too, but there’s a lot of doubt being thrown at them, not only because of the question marks surrounding their players, but because the NFC is so poorly regarded. So was the National League. Ask the Buckeyes and Tigers what happens when an underdog comes out to play with a chip on its shoulder.

Going beyond the philosophical points on why the Bears can win this game, I’m picking them because, according to the spread, it’s smart. No team has covered a spread of seven or more since the Rams pushed against the Titans in Super Bowl XXXIV. (You’d have to go back two more years to 1998 to find a team favored by seven that actually won.) Four of the last five Vegas-projected Super Bowl winners haven’t covered the spread. Are the Colts that much of a juggernaut that they can be one of the few exceptions? I don’t see it against a Bears defense this good. Look at the 2002 Bucs, look at the 2000 Ravens, hell, look at the Patriots’ dynasty. Defense wins these games, and even if it doesn’t, the margin of victory will likely be less than seven.

Bank on the defense and the underdog, but most of all, bank on the spread.

For the record, there’s one assistant sports editor who was the regular season NFL picks champ, and that’s me. I agreed to do one final winner-take-all pick on the Super Bowl out of pity for L.J., poor guy.

Bears 31, Colts 17

MVP: The real Manning, Ricky Manning, Jr.