Lock: HOUSTON (even) over New Orleans: These two have identical records and almost identical points differential. The Saints’ four-game win streak ended last week, and Andre Johnson and Matt Schaub return for Houston, which is home.

New England (-16 1/2) over BUFFALO: The Bills have allowed just 19 more points than the Pats this season, which makes me start to think they could play with New England. But the Pats have outscored the Bills by 212 points, and the Bill’s defense, even though it’s been stingy points-wise, has allowed the seventh most passing yards in the league and fifth most total yards. Not good.

BALTIMORE (+3) over Cleveland: Kyle Boller’s back this week. I remember when his accuracy dropped below 80 in Madden. Do you know how bad that is? Still, I’m a closet Ravens fan and the offense can’t continue to be this bad with McGahee leading the way.

Miami (+10 1/2) over PHILADELPHIA: The Dolphins are getting hungry enough to stay within 11.