Yes, the Red Sox are 2-1 favorites. Yes, they have home field advantage. Yes, they are playing in their second World Series in four years.
But will they win it all?
The answer to that is no.
The Rockies have won 21 of their last 22 games. Nobody gave them a chance against the Phillies and the Diamondbacks, and now they are underdogs again. And they have played that role to perfection, bulldozing their way to the World Series.
While everyone is making the argument that they have to cool down and the days off will hurt them, they are not even firing on all cylinders this postseason. The best is still yet to come.
Two sweeps and seven straight victories and the Rockies aren’t even playing up to their potential offensively. Their four big bats combined to hit just .210 and after hitting .280 in the regular season as a team, they hit just .242.
Troy Tulowitzki, Matt Holliday, Todd Helton and Garrett Atkins are yet to hit their stride. While the team is in the midst of a hot streak, they are doing it without four of their most productive offensive threats. Tulowitzki has hit just .179, Helton is at .194 and Atkins is hitting .185. Holliday, who could be the National League MVP hitting .340 in the regular season, hit just.283.
With those four getting ready to turn things around in addition to Kaz Matsui (.310), Yorvit Torrealba (.320) and Brad Hawpe (.304), the Rockies offense can put up runs right there with the Red Sox lineup.
That same Rockies lineup outscored Boston 20-5 in three games when the two teams faced-off in mid-June at Fenway Park. Colorado took two-of-three beating both Josh Beckett and Curt Schilling. While there is a difference between the World Series and games in June, the Rockies proved that they can not just beat Boston’s best, but demolish them, as both Beckett and Schilling gave up six runs in five innings.
And while everyone knows that Beckett and Schilling are a solid 1-2 punch, don’t sleep on a Rockies staff that is holding opponents to 2.29 runs per game with a 2.08 ERA (1.59 for the bullpen) in the playoffs. With a solid 17-game winner in Jeff Francis at the top of the rotation and Manny Corpas as the closer, the Rockies have to feel confident with a lead. In the NLCS against the D-backs, the bullpen allowed just 18 hits, five earned runs, six walks and struck out 24 in 28 1/3 innings.
The Rockies also hold advantages defensively and in the dugout. Colorado had the highest fielding percentage of any team in baseball history with a .98925 fielding percentage having made just 68 errors. Colorado also has a better manager in Clint Hurdle. While Terry Francona may have more talent to work with, it’s how you use it that could make a difference. Francona is going to have several decisions to make including being forced to put David Ortiz at first base when the teams travel to Colorado and with an injured leg that could get worse, do you risk leaving him in there? Also, Francona is also going to have to decide in Game 4 if he is going to come back with Beckett or go with Tim Wakefield, who got lit up against the Indians in the same scenario. So with Beckett on three days rest at Colorado, the Rockies could steal a game right there.
The Rockies can rely on clutch hitting (hitting .283 with runners in scoring position in the postseason), a strong lineup top to bottom that is about to heat up, solid pitching from starters to middle relief to closer and a better manager. They do all of the the little things from solid baserunning to small ball. They play the game right and don’t watch and stare at their home runs. They not only deserve to win, but they will win.