Lock:

Dallas (NL) over Green Bay: Listen, I love the Aaron Rodgers story, too. I love that he’s stepping into Brett Favre’s shoes and leading the Packers to victory. There’s only one issue with that: he’s beaten two teams with a combined 0-4 record. The Cowboys are no pushovers (which pains me to say as a Giants fan), and they’ll give Rodgers a real welcome to the NFL.

Buffalo (-8.5) over Oakland: The Raiders are actually playing decently these days. But Buffalo looks great and they’re scoring a lot of points. While I’ve never seen Trent Edwards or J.P. Losman as marquee quarterbacks, they don’t need to be with a lightning quick wideout like Lee Evans or a bruising running back like Marshawn Lynch. The Raiders are in for a long afternoon, probably causing Al Davis to throw a tantrum on live TV, which is fun. We all love seeing cranky 79-year-old men ranting about things. It makes us all feel better about ourselves. Or am I alone in that?

Chicago (-3) over Tampa Bay: I have a friend who will hate this pick (sorry, Tim), but this pick was relatively easy. Chicago’s got a great defense and Matt Forte has been a revelation to a team that hasn’t had a dominant back in quite some time. And while he is scary at times, Jon Gruden’s resemblance to horror icon Chucky will not help the Bucs in this game; they’re lost and going nowhere.

New Orleans (+5.5) over Denver: OK, I took the Saints last week and got burned. This week, against a good Broncos defense, Drew Brees will step it up and prove that he deserves to be one of the best QBs in the NFL. Don’t get me wrong, this will be a close game, but in the end, the Saints are getting the W. And if not … I’ll cry.