Lock:

Indianapolis (-2) over Dallas

The Colts have been the best team in the NFL for a long time, even if they have no title to show for it in the Peyton Manning era. Dallas got off to a slow start, and Tony Romo has gotten a lot of credit for turning things around in a hurry. Keep in mind though, aside from one 25-point quarter against the Panthers, Romo has taken on the defensively anemic Cardinals and Redskins. Dallas is getting every chance to prove themselves, but have not beaten a good team this year. That will continue in Big D.

Upset Special:

Tennessee (+13) over Philadelphia

After a slow start and Jeff Fisher facing job security questions for the first time, the Titans have played much better the last few weeks, and their team seems more disciplined than it has in a long time; they also get Albert Haynesworth back this weekend. Philly is good but not great; they have lost three of four and their lone win in that span was against the lowly Redskins. Tennessee may not win, but they won’t lose by 13.

Game 1:

Carolina (-7) over St. Louis

How many times do the Rams have to lose before people stop saying they are a good team with hard luck? Yeah, they lose late in games, but that’s only because their defense is awful. The Panthers are fighting for their playoff lives and should roll over the Rams.

Game 2:

Denver (-3) over San Diego

After a slug fest with Cincinnati last week, the Chargers won’t score as many points and the Broncos seem like they are for real. Jake Plummer has quelled any talk of a QB controversy, and playing at Mile High will only help. Denver by a touchdown.