When analysts make preseason predictions, they tend to go with most of the obvious choices, and maybe throw in a surprise or two.

Obvious choices include picks that are made because everyone else is saying that’s what will happen — even when you know the pick goes against your better judgment.

After winning 14 straight division titles, the Atlanta Braves were an obvious choice.

But if you take a closer look, the Braves made a lot of changes in the offseason. They lost their starting shortstop and catcher, their closer, their best veteran leader and their revered pitching coach.

And while all of this was happening, the New York Mets picked up the best available closer, a new catcher, a powerful first baseman and an electric set-up man. They also enhanced their bench while holding onto young talent that was ready to mature.

So why didn’t I pick the Amazin’ Mets to win the NL East in Pipe Dream’s MLB preview?

Well, as the season neared, it seemed like most analysts had forgotten about the new pieces the Mets acquired. Everyone picked Atlanta to finish atop the division because of its complete dominance over the last decade and a half.

New York had a balanced offense, solid starting pitching, good defense and a bullpen that could hold leads. All it would have taken to pick the Mets was a little backbone. Sadly, this writer does not possess that quality.

He does possess the ability to admit when he’s wrong, though, so here goes nothing: The New York Mets will win their division in 2006.

Yes, it’s still early. Yes, the Braves started off slow last year, too. And yes, the Mets have shown they can blow it when the pressure is on. But if you look at the small things that winning teams do, the Mets are starting to look like a winner.

What the Braves have done is remarkable. Such consistency is something to marvel at; for the longest time, Atlanta has taken a limited budget and players thought to be past their prime and managed to eke out division titles — every one since 1991. But the time has come for them to concede the throne.

The Braves just don’t seem to have the spark they had in years past, and the pressure to continue their streak may finally get the best of them.

Plus, for all the talk about Leo Mazzone making the Orioles’ pitching staff better, the Braves are struggling on the mound in a way they haven’t in over a decade. Probably not a coincidence.

As for the Mets, they have players who get along, a coaching staff the players respect and young players who are only getting better. Most importantly, they have nothing to lose.

The camaraderie is obvious; all the players are supportive of each other, leaders are doing their jobs and this team has handshakes with more intricate details than an Olympic figure skater. This team comes to the ballpark expecting to win, and is doing just that.

So it may not be so much that the Braves have done anything wrong, but that the Mets are finally doing it right. And as a result, there will be October baseball in Queens — and not just as a wild card.