Play-in game
No. 8 Hartford 55, No. 9 Stony Brook 49
Hartford is too good of a team to lose to Stony Brook, which is really to say that Dan Leibovitz is too good a coach to let his team lose. Hartford lacks star power on offense, but its defense can be as good as any team’s in the America East, as demonstrated by the second half of the game against Binghamton last week. Stony Brook, on the other hand, is a team of under-performing offensive stars. I’ll take good coaching and defense any day.
Quarterfinals
No. 1 Vermont 74, No. 8 Hartford 59
Hartford lacks the size to beat Vermont, but they can compete with the Catamounts with sheer effort. Strangely enough, Binghamton is actually the one team in the conference which has the size to really bang with Holm & Co. on the glass. So with its half of the brackets lacking any good competition at the center position, Vermont should cruise. The Hawks will keep this game close ‘ for 10 minutes ‘ at which point the nine-hour turnaround from the play-in game will wear them down. Vermont will coast through the second half.
No. 5 UMBC 68, No. 4 Maine 67
Both these teams are among the worst defensively in the America East. On paper, both squads look pretty even; each has a star guard (Brian Hodges and Kevin Reed) and underrated and under-sized power forwards (Mike Housman, Chris Bruff). In a close game, the edge goes to the better free-throw shooting team, and UMBC is tops in the AE while Maine is second-to-last. Plus, Retriever point guard Jay Greene deserves props for his playmaking ability and for ignoring all those ‘midget’ chants.
No. 2 Albany 73, No. 7 New Hampshire 54
This is not the same Wildcat team that beat Albany twice last year. They lost eight of their first nine games and finished the season losing seven of nine. Albany, as much as I hate to say it, will be on a mission to prove that Vermont isn’t the only trick in town. UNH’s Blagoj Janev will force some bad shots in his swan song to put the ‘Cats in an early hole.
No. 3 Boston University 53, No. 6 Binghamton 51
This one kills me. Really, it does. Binghamton is playing its best ball of the season, and Boston is on a three-game slide. The Bearcats will probably have more fans at this game than the hosts will, too. Call this one the Mark-Macyk-pick-against-your-favorite-team selection. This is another game about defense and coaching, and I can’t ignore the job Dennis Wolff has done this year. Corey Lowe will hit a game-winning 3-pointer with a few seconds left. I just have a bad feeling about this one.
Semifinals
No. 1 Vermont 70, No. 5 UMBC 59
UMBC, like Hartford, doesn’t have the personnel to shut down Vermont’s interior game. When these teams met in the regular season, UMBC got destroyed in the rebounding category.
No. 2 Albany 69, No. 3 Boston University 60
Boston will try to slow this one down, but Albany can match them in the halfcourt. Look for the Danes to put on a shooting show early; they are shooting a whopping .399 from 3-point land in conference play. Boston will claw back into the game, but it will be too little, too late for the young Terriers.
I’m going to add a caveat here that completely undermines my bracket: if Binghamton defeats Boston in the quarterfinals, the Bearcats will beat Albany here in what will be the best game of the tournament. There’s so much bad blood between Albany and Binghamton fans at this point, and each time these teams play each other it’s an instant classic.
Finals
No. 1 Vermont 67, No. 2 Albany 65
If you’re looking for a major upset in my bracket, you won’t find it here. As much as Great Dane fans will look for Jamar Wilson to go out with a bang in his final America East game, I can’t pick against Vermont here. They’ve been too dominant this year, losing only one conference game. In America East history dating back to 1979, only one one-loss team ended up losing in the conference tournament. That team? Boston University in 2004. Who won that year? That’s right, Vermont. The Catamounts just don’t lose when it matters, whether they’re a No. 1 seed or a No. 6 seed (2006, anyone?).