The Sweet 16 is set.
Here is a breakdown of how the games should go this week. Note: Readers should realize that I picked Texas to win the whole thing, and so any wrong picks this week should not be held against me.
No. 2 Memphis (31-3) vs. No. 3 Texas A&M (27-6)
Memphis has won 22 games in a row and has not lost since Dec. 20, over three months ago. But they play in a weak conference, had no quality wins and all three losses were to teams that made the NCAA tournament (Tennessee, Arizona, Georgia Tech). With only two scorers averaging double figures on the season (Chris Douglas-Roberts 15.4 ppg, Jeremy Hunt 13.6 ppg), the Tigers will need some depth if they expect to beat the Aggies. Texas A&M is led by Player of the Year candidate Acie Law IV. He averages 18 ppg, and had 20 and 26 points, respectively, in the first two rounds of the tournament. Unlike Memphis, the Aggies have four players who score 12 or more points per game, and they spread the ball around. They also play in the tough Big 12 conference and had quality wins against Texas and Kansas. A&M should win this one.
No. 1 Kansas (32-4) vs. No. 4 Southern Illinois (29-6)
Kansas, which enters this game on a 13-game winning streak, arguably should have been the tournament’s overall No. 1 pick. The Jayhawks are led by sophomores Brandon Rush (14 ppg, 6 rpg), Mario Chalmers (12 ppg, 3 rpg) and Julian Wright (12 ppg, 8 rpg). The trio accounts for 46 percent of the Jayhawks’ offense. Southern Illinois has been flying under the radar this year. They have a very stingy defense, and they excel in rebounding, stealing and blocking shots. The defense will have to continue its stellar play if the Salukis want to remain in the tournament. Kansas wins this one, but it should come down to the wire.
No. 2 UCLA (26-5) vs. No. 3 Pittsburgh (29-7)
The Bruins have played solidly all year, but slipped up with two straight losses to close the regular season. Perhaps this team is showing signs of fatigue, as the Bruins barely squeaked by with a five-point win against Indiana this weekend. Arron Afflalo’s 17 points per game leads the Bruins, while Josh Shipp chips in 14 ppg and Darren Collison adds 13 ppg. Pittsburgh will be a tough task, as they shoot lights out from 3-point range. Three players shoot better than 40 percent from downtown. Combine this with the inside presence of Aaron Gray and Pittsburgh will score often. The Panthers did receive a scare from Virginia Commonwealth, which took the game into OT this weekend, but should rebound with a solid win against a tough UCLA team.
No. 1 Ohio State (32-3) vs. No. 5 Tennessee (24-10)
Anyone who watched Ohio State vs. Xavier this weekend saw that anything can happen during March Madness. The good news for the Buckeyes, besides the fact that they won the game in OT, was that they proved they could win without freshman sensation Greg Oden (who fouled out). It was another freshman, Mike Conley Jr., who sparked the comeback, scoring 21 points, while Ron Lewis had 27 points. Winning without the big man proves that this team really can go all the way. Tennessee is led by Chris Lofton, who scores 20 points per game. And, while the Volunteers scored 121 points in their first round game, they barely beat Virginia on Sunday, prevailing by only three points. The bottom line is that the Buckeyes have only three losses all season, and those were road games against the top three teams in the country at that time (Florida, UNC, Wisconsin), and they will not falter against a much weaker Tennessee team.
No. 1 Florida (31-5) vs. No. 5 Butler (29-6)
The Gators returned all five of their starters (Noah, Horford, Brewer, Green and Humphrey) who led them to a national championship a year ago. It is a very good sign when big man Joakim Noah is fourth on the team in scoring, and still adds 12 points per game ‘ Florida effectively distributes the ball. The good news for Butler is that Florida showed its weakness in a close 74-67 win this weekend against Purdue. A.J. Graves leads the Bulldogs with 17 points per game, while Pete Campbell shoots 51 percent from downtown. The 3-point shooting will have to be on display if Butler wants to have any chance to win this game. Look for Florida to pound the ball inside, dominating in the paint. Florida takes this one.
No. 2 Georgetown (28-6) vs. No. 6 Vanderbilt (22-11)
These teams hooked up back in November, when Georgetown got an 86-70 win. The Hoyas have been one of the hottest teams in the NCAA, winners of 17 of their past 18 contests. Since losing its last regular season game at Syracuse, Georgetown won the Big East title and then proceeded to roll through the first two rounds of the tournament. It is hard to beat a team that shoots 50 percent from the field, as the Commodores should find out this weekend. However, Vanderbilt’s 22-11 record is very misleading. They went 6-2 against top 25 teams this year, including a win against Florida. Vandy went 10-6 in the SEC this year, arguably the toughest conference in the NCAA. The season should end for Vandy the same way it started: with a loss to the Hoyas.
No. 3 Oregon (28-7) vs. No. 7 UNLV (30-6)
Since suffering a three-game losing streak against teams they should have beaten (Arizona, California and Stanford), Oregon has won eight games in a row. The Ducks are led by senior Aaron Brooks’ 18 points per game. A major strength of this team is their free-throw shooting, knocking down 76 percent from the line. But look out for the Runnin’ Rebels of UNLV! I’m not sure if they classify as a ‘Cinderella story,’ but many experts picked them to lose in the first round to Georgia Tech. Not only did they win that game, but they also had a dominating performance against Wisconsin. Senior Wendell White has averaged 21 points per game in the tournament thus far. Expect the Rebels to ‘run’ to the elite eight.
No. 1 UNC (30-6) vs. No. 5 USC (25-11)
Everyone who follows college basketball knows about Tyler Hansbrough. Last year he put up incredible numbers as a freshman. The good news for UNC is that they have three more ‘diaper-dandies’ on the squad this year, in Brandan Wright (15 ppg, 6 rpg), Wayne Ellington (12 ppg) and Ty Lawson (11 ppg). The Tar Heels are an excellent rebounding team as well, but USC should not be counted out. In a rematch of the 2006 Rose Bowl, USC came out on top this time with an 87-68 spanking of Texas. Where was Vince Young when Texas needed him? Anyway, that game certainly widened some eyes, and UNC knows it has to play a solid game to move on. USC does have four players who score in double figures, but the team also has more turnovers than assists. That must change if the Trojans plan on attending the elite eight. Pick the Heels in this one.