Lock:

Atlanta (-8) over Cleveland

Even as a Giants fan, I have to concede: If Michael Vick keeps playing the way he has, Atlanta is the most dangerous team in the NFC. Then again, I thought Chicago was the best team in the NFC last week, and they wound up getting destroyed by Miami. The only way I see the Browns winning this is if after they fall behind by a few touchdowns they replace Charlie Frye with Eli Manning for a fourth quarter run and Elisha, the king of combacks leads his new squad to an upset. But, assuming that won’t happen the Falcons should soar to victory. But I must warn you, I have been wrong before.

Upset Special:

Buffalo (+13) over Indianapolis

This is your classic let-down game. The Colts went out and dominated New England on the road in a must-win game last week. Why should they try against Buffalo this week? The Bills are coming off one of their most complete games all season, and could see this game as a way to salvage a lost season. Am I saying J.P. Losman is going to out-gun Peyton? No, of course not, but the Bills will keep it a lot closer than anyone thinks they will.

Game 1:

San Diego (-1 1/2) over Cincinnati

Cincinnati’s season is riding on this game. If they beat the Chargers they could make the playoffs, if they lose, their season could very well be done. As long as the Bengals don’t break LaDainian Tomlinson’s knees with a baseball bat (and that might be a possibility with this squad), San Diego should roll.

Game 2:

Arizona (+7) over Dallas

Arizona has gone too long without living up to its potential, and T.O. has gone too long without deciding to stop trying. But this isn’t so much based upon talent as it is upon Matt Leinart being sooo much dreamier than Tony Romo. Cards finally win one.