Modern discussions on foreign policy focus mostly on active conflicts — explosions, gunfire, rockets and tanks make great headlines, and public opinion on nations abroad tends to be shaped by the images that are shown in the evening news. However, modern politics are shaped by factors far more complex and opaque than wars, one important example of this being the Caucasus region at the intersection of Europe and the Middle East.
The current war in Ukraine as well as the rising tensions between Iran and Israel are happening against the backdrop of existing political complexities between three key countries in the region — Armenia, Azerbaijan and Georgia. It has become strategically important for great powers of the world to establish ties, improve relations and form local alliances in this region, meaning that the sovereignty of these nations is at risk of being eroded in the face of diplomatic coercion or worse — military pressure. This is important for recent developments, considering how obscure and ignored the region often is in the media.
The most important factor that makes this region vital for power politics is geography. The Caucasus is far enough from active conflicts in the vicinity to not face an immediate danger, but near enough to them to have bases to gather intelligence and exert military influence. Armenia and Azerbaijan are the targets in this strategy which has received a lot of attention — regional powers such as Iran, Turkey and Russia as well as distant actors like France and China have put stakes into influencing local politics through arms deals and military contracts, for example. Efforts in this regard have increased significantly since the Second Karabakh War in 2020 and it is not outlandish to assume that military cooperation will be a tool for establishing influence zones over the region.
Another more covert but fundamental way of gaining influence in the region has less to do with cooperation and more with political control. Beyond having a strategic push factor through economic or military agreements, major powers have shown interest in opening up support for political factions that align with their interests. A clear example of this phenomenon is in Georgia, where recent elections have generated considerable controversy over the question of the future of the country. The Georgian Dream party, known for its soft Euroscepticism and reluctance to approve Western influence, has won the election for the parliament with an overwhelming majority. As their administration has made clear they have a more neutral stance on global issues, the response of Russia and China has been positive while European Union and American officials are insisting on claims of electoral fraud.
The legitimacy of such claims is, as of now, yet to be ascertained, but it is abundantly clear that Georgia is key to the Atlanticist strategy of surrounding geopolitical rivals — in this case, Russia — with local allies, which are to be used as staging grounds for military buildups. This, to a certain degree, explains the speed with which the elections have been criticized in the West as illegitimate, as Georgia’s expected new course as a neutral actor hinders efforts to utilize it as a staging ground for the geopolitical struggle against Russia.
Armenia and Azerbaijan face the same situation but only to a lesser extent, since their respective political directions are more or less defined by pragmatic goals for the time being. Azerbaijan has a geographic advantage through its control of vital trade routes and large fossil fuel resources whereas Armenia is motivated by its defeat in the 2020 war to align with France and the United States for economic and arms deals. Their national interests of diplomatic redoubt align with the strategic ambitions of powers that seek to have a foothold in the region — this presents the opportunity for domestic politics to be meddled with in the long run as well.
An example from history that rhymes with the current situation was that of Afghanistan in the 19th century when Russia and Britain competed over the country to expand their zone of colonial influence during a period called “The Great Game.” Rising tensions and the heat of political competition led to numerous skirmishes and wars over what is today Pakistan, Iran and central Asia — that level of concentration from major powers towards a contentious region is exactly the same dynamic we are seeing in the Caucasus today.
The biggest geopolitical danger that is yet to actually arise is the threat of a new conflict emerging in the region, the problem being that such a scenario could very quickly escalate into a standoff between Russia and the West on another front. Therefore, one of the key foreign policy priorities of a new presidential administration in the United States will likely be this specific region. The approach of the Biden administration to the political circumstances there has been limited and inconsistent, but in the context of a deteriorating situation in Ukraine, the Caucasus can potentially become the new target of geopolitical ambitions for Washington as much as it already is for Moscow, Beijing, Tehran and Ankara.
Deniz Gulay is a sophomore majoring in history.
Views expressed in the opinions pages represent the opinions of the columnists. The only piece that represents the view of the Pipe Dream Editorial Board is the staff editorial.