We have been hearing from Taiwan a lot more frequently in the recent years. That is because this tiny island, within a very close distance to China, is these days becoming a dangerous subject in geopolitics that poses the risk of becoming the equivalent of what Sarajevo was back in 1914 or Danzig in 1939 — a single spark that can potentially ignite the entire world and cause a large-scale conflict between superpower nations. The current internal divisions within this small yet adamant country are developments which are concerning for a diverse range of reasons.

What we generally tend to hear about this island on the news is only regarding two factors — international diplomacy and tech. A world-renown hub for the electronics industry, Taiwan contributes heavily toward the global supply of electronic components and devices alike. In addition, Taiwan is an island strategically of vital importance to the United States foreign policy strategy in Asia as along with regional partners such as Japan and South Korea, it forms a challenging line of alliances designed to contain China in the Pacific. Beyond this, and especially in the light of current political developments, Taiwan is steadily gaining importance as the long and complicated history of the island is now fueling growing disputes that are becoming increasingly more challenging for the United States to address.

For centuries, Taiwan was ruled by a variety of Chinese dynasties which sought to integrate the culturally diverse island into the wider Han culture of the mainland. And after decades of Japanese colonial occupation, it became the last refuge of the Kuomintang Administration during the last moments of the Chinese Civil War. Three-quarters of a century later, the ideological resistance that was born out of a stand against socialism is still defining the national identity of this country. However, internal political divisions also continue to define the island’s future outlook as the position the country must embrace is becoming a serious point of contention, especially in the context of the upcoming elections that will take place in January of next year.

Taiwan will inevitably feel the influence of its domestic politics when it comes to its national foreign policy, as the region it is situated in is uniquely strategic and therefore vitally important for both the People’s Republic of China and the United States to have control over. This is because not only is it important for the United States to maintain its diplomatic and military presence in Asia by using Taiwan along with other regional partners as part of what is known as the “First Island Chain” that surrounds China but also because the Taiwan Strait, which separates the mainland from the island, is a route through which enormous amounts of goods and products flow. Establishing total control over this strait can yield significant strategic and economic advantage for any superpower both under peacetime and wartime conditions.

Today, Taiwan still defines its identity based on its continued opposition to Beijing and its ideal eventual goal is to reclaim its political sovereignty and national identity by retaking control over the mainland. However, because it is so dependent on Western support for its continued existence, and as a result of the frozen state of the old conflict between the Nationalists and Communists now seen as the preferred status-quo, it is becoming increasingly difficult to determine if Taiwan is merely a government-in-exile that continues its long resistance or a new nation altogether with a cultural, political and at some point possibly even a linguistic and ethnic identity separate from the mainland. This identity crisis is also coupled with the fact that Taiwan to this very day lacks official recognition from most nations around the world and therefore relations are only conducted at an unofficial level that lacks definitive authority. As a result, Taiwan today stands at a political crossroads that is concerning for the strategic interests of both Beijing and Washington.

We are currently only weeks away from the elections which will take place in the island and beyond the usual debates regarding domestic policies — what is very important to observe in the coming days is going to be the debate around foreign policy and future goals of the country.

Should Taiwan aim to reclaim the mainland or should the status-quo be preserved? Is Taiwan a part of and the rightful representative of all of China or is it a country with an independent culture and identity? Where does this island stand when it comes to determining its future in a world that is becoming more violent with conflicts and more interwoven with strategic alliances that oppose each other?

These questions and the answers the political candidates running for the upcoming election are bringing will very likely define the people of Taiwan’s position toward both its Western supporters and Beijing. And as the rivalry and hostilities between the People’s Republic of China and the United States of America continue to grow on an unprecedented scale, Taiwan is gaining importance as a key strategic region, gaining control over which is vital for either superpower’s long-term interests. For the United States of America, Taiwan is a forward base of operations from which Asia can be monitored and influenced whereas for the People’s Republic of China, Taiwan represents the last step toward the resolution of an ideological struggle that stretches across decades. With growing signs of not just diplomatic but also military escalation over Taiwan itself, the Taiwanese people will have to decide over the fate of their island in a world where such tenuous disputes have the potential to spiral out of control in ways which should remind us of some of the most painful and violent chapters in the history of the world.

Deniz Gulay is a freshman majoring in history.